The  Society of Actuaries (SOA) recently predicted health insurance costs in the individual market would increase 32% by 2017.  Not good news, especially considering that the blame for this increase was placed at the doorstep of the Accountable Care Act (ACA).  Contrary to the expectations of those who developed the new reform laws, the SOA asserts that this increase is in part due to the poor health status of the new enrollees now eligible under the ACA.

While other reputable analysts disagree with the size of SOA’s predicted rate increase, they do agree that costs will be higher, not lower, as advertised by ACA supporters during the debates over its enactment.  The Congressional Budget Office similarly predicted that premiums for individual coverage would be 10 to 13% higher than they would be without the ACA.

(A consequence of large rate increases beginning in 2014 may be the boost such increases lends to the campaign for passage of the health insurance rate regulation initiative on the California ballot next year .)

Rate increases are not the only bump in the road for health care reform.  Last month the feds announced a one-year delay in allowing small businesses to have access to several health plans in the exchanges.  In 2014, enrollees in the Small Business Health Insurance Options Program  will have access to only one plan.

And lastly, 26 states are rejecting the ACA by refusing to establish the state-run health benefits exchanges central to its goal of expanding coverage to the uninsured. So, that means the Department of Health and Human Services will have to hustle to get a federal version of the exchanges up and running in those states by October of this year…five months from now.

What’s next?